Analysis of Drought Index with Theory of Run Statistical Method in Dompu Regency

Abstract

Indonesia has in recent years experienced severe drought in some areas. Climate change causes temperatures in Indonesia to become hotter and makes rainfall patterns erratic or El-Nino. Indonesia is an agricultural country that makes the agricultural sector as one of the livelihoods for many people, but droughts that occur in several regions in Indonesia result in losses for farmers because the agricultural crops planted have failed harvests, resulting in reduced community income. Dompu Regency is one of the areas experiencing drought. Analysis of the drought index in Manggalewa District using the Theory of Run method with the aim of determining the prediction of the duration of rain for a period of 10 years. The results showed that in the period 2003-2022, the longest drought duration was 11 events that occurred from March 2014 to January 2015 with a deficit value of 430.05 mm from the average normal rain, while the duration of wet months was 12 events that occurred from March 2021 to February 2022. Meanwhile, in the 2023-2032 period, the longest drought duration is 8 months which occurs in February-September 2027, while the worst deficit value occurs in December 2030 to January 2031 of 235.93 mm from the average normal rain, while the duration of wet months is 6 events that occur in August 2025 to January 2026.