Reframing Renewable Energy Reliability as a National Security Threat: Strategic Foresight and Institutional Challenges in Indonesia’s Energy Transition

Abstract

This study critically examines the threats to Indonesia’s energy security arising from the unreliable integration of renewable energy sources (EBT) within the national grid. Drawing from Barry Buzan’s sectoral threat typology, Michael T. Klare’s energy geopolitics framework, and Sugirman’s early warning intelligence theory, the research reframes energy reliability as a national security concern rather than a purely technical issue. Through qualitative analysis of policy documents and in-depth interviews with key informants from government, academia, and intelligence institutions, the study identifies systemic vulnerabilities linked to intermittency, underdeveloped infrastructure, and institutional fragmentation. It reveals that the absence of anticipatory intelligence and risk scenario planning limits Indonesia’s capacity to ensure a stable and resilient energy transition. The findings further highlight the underutilized role of local stakeholders in decentralized energy resilience and the lack of integration between climate risk modelling and national energy planning. Drawing comparisons with the United Kingdom and Germany, the paper argues for embedding strategic foresight within Indonesia’s energy governance framework. The study concludes by proposing institutional reforms that enhance cross-sectoral coordination, intelligence engagement, and localized adaptive capacity to secure the future reliability of EBT. Ultimately, it positions renewable energy reliability as not only a cornerstone of environmental and economic policy, but also of state sovereignty and long-term climate diplomacy.